Sugar

Sugar looks poised for a nice bounce when looking at the weekly chart of the March 2014 contract. The current downtrend off last October's highs has found support at the 361/261 fib combo of the dominating and 1st level supporting ABCD patterns. The dominating ABCD had a deep retracement with slightly left handed skewing (8:9). The 1st level supporting ABCD had medium deep retracement with left handed skewing (3:8). These two combine to form a weak moving downtrend that could create a rally that retraces between 50 and 61 pct of the move down. That puts the long term target between 20.50 and 21.50. However, that is a longer term view.

Shorter term objectives include:
* 18.28, the sym triangle pattern obj
* 18.70-19.00, the fib cluster of resistance along with the 50 WMA
* 19.38, the 261 fib projection of the potential ABCD pattern forming off the recent lows

Some potential clues a short term to medium term bottom is in place:
* support @ 361/261 fib combo as mentioned above
* 2nd level and 3rd level 361 fib projections in the same area as the major 361/261 cluster
* decreasing time of ABCD patterns shows loss of momentum (bars: 17, 11, 11, 6)
* oversold RSI @ the 7/14 bottom
* failure to take out the 7/14 low on the recent retest
* close above the 10 WMA
* confirmation of a sym tri reversal pattern
* seasonal strength from late Sep to early Nov

Next big hurdle:
* to get a close above the 20 WMA, currently around 17.70, which would be the first since 9/30 of 2012 (highlighted in dark blue)

Chart to follow later.