Tuesday, April 30, 2013

British Pound

The head & shoulder bottom objective was reached today and closed right near the MR2 for the second day in a row.  We've also closed above the 100 DMA for the past 3 days, which is a bullish sign.  We have now reached my first two price targets (conservative and moderate).  The only one left is the aggressive target of 1.5637, which is the 261 fib projection of the dominant ABCD pattern.  If we surpass that level, then I will start to monitor higher areas for possible resistance.

Thursday, April 25, 2013

British Pound

The Pound did indeed find support in the 1.5150-1.5190 zone I mentioned a few days ago.  The low of the day on 4/23 was 1.5192.  The market reacted favorably to the GDP figures today and broke above the recent swing high set on 4/11.  You now have back to back ABCD patterns with higher highs and higher lows.  Today's high of 1.5477 was just above the conservative target I mentioned back on 4/6 and closed just below it's 100 DMA.  This moving average could provide some brief resistance along with the MR2 @ 1.5517.  Don't forget we are very near our H&S bottom target ~ 1.5546.  If we can clear above these levels, then your next target area is the 1.5637 to 1.5752 zone.  This area is the 261/261 target of the two ABCD patterns.

Continuous Commodity Index

The ICE has delisted the CCI Index Futures Contracts, so I can't continue this analysis. 

Wednesday, April 17, 2013

Continuous Commodity Index

Let's take another look at this market.  We've seen some increased selling this week after a pause last week.  It's looking more likely to test that 78.60% area @ 522.903.  I still believe we will go even lower and possibly test the recent lows near 502.28. 

British Pound

The British Pound met some resistance around the 38% retracement area and has sold off the past few days.  Today's price action was bearish with a close back below all the moving averages (10, 20, 50 ,100).  There is potential for support and a bounce around the 1.5150-1.5190 zone.  This area has a confluence of fib support and two intersecting support trendlines.  Let's watch price action in this area.  If it blows through, then you can expect a test of the recent lows. 

Saturday, April 6, 2013

Continuous Commodity Index

It looks to me like the commodity markets have more downside action ahead according to the CCI weekly chart.  Since it's Sept 2012 high, this market has been making lower highs and lower lows.  This 6 month downtrend has seen 3 ABCD patterns:
* Pattern 1 has a shallow retracement with 4:4 neutral skewing: BEARISH
* Pattern 2 has a deep retracement with 4:3 right handed skewing: BULLISH
* Pattern 3 has a neutral retracement with a 1:3 left handed skewing: NEUTRAL
The dominant pattern is #1 and sets the tone, which is Bearish.  I'm expecting this move to test the 78% retracement zone @ 522.903 and possibly a bit lower.  I think this downtrend finds support somewhere between 502.50 and 523 as the downtrend has been weakening.  If we get closer to this area I will give more analysis on possible areas for a bounce, which would affect numerous commodity markets. 
Stay tuned!

British Pound

It's been about a week since my last post on this market so let me give another update:
First, we saw prices break down and close below the 10 and 20 DMA on Tuesday with a bearish candle.  It looked as though the H&S pattern was in trouble and prices were going to try and test recent lows.  However, on Thursday following the BOE meeting we saw prices bounce off their lows, rally, and close near their highs creating a very bullish candle.  This brought us back above the 10 and 20 DMA along with creating a potential ABCD pattern.
Second, Friday's price action indeed confirmed an ABCD pattern with neutral retracement and a very bullish 7:1 right hand skew on the breakout.  The skewing confirms bullish momentum as it took 7 bars from it's swing high to swing low and only one bar to break out and create the ABCD pattern.  This changes some of the upside price targets.
Third, we got a close above the 50 DMA for the first time since January 10th and closed right on the 10 WMA.
Finally, some upside price targets:
Conservative:  the 100% projection of the ABCD pattern ~ 1.5464
Moderate:   the H&S objective ~ 1.5545 alongside the 100 DMA ~ 1.5531 and 20 WMA ~ 1.5521
Aggressive:  the 261% extension of the ABCD pattern ~ 1.5637