Sunday, September 29, 2013

Sugar

The rest of the week saw Sugar reach the 3rd resistance area I mentioned @ 18.14 and just missed touching the 4th resistance area @ 18.27-18.30.  The high for this week happened on Thursday and was 18.24.  Friday saw significant selling down around 50 cents and registering a bearish candle.  On the daily chart we still have closing prices above the 20 and 50 DMA, but as of Thursday we had been above the 10 and 100 DMA as well.  We are still seeing higher highs and higher lows, but Friday's action puts the recent up move from bullish to neutral in my opinion.  If we take out the recent swing low of 17.35, then it moves from neutral to bearish.



Tuesday, September 24, 2013

Sugar

Monday's price action brought 1st area downside support and 1st area upside resistance into play:
* 1st area support is at the rising window (gap), the MR1, and the 10 DMA: 17.51-17.54
* 1st area resistance continues to be the current resistance, which is the 20 WMA and 100 DMA
The low of the day was 17.52, then rallied and closed on its highs of the day @ 17.81.  This was above the 1st area resistance.

Today's price action brought 2nd level upside resistance into play:
* 2nd area resistance is the 361 fib projection from the dominant ABCD pattern: 17.96.
The high of the day was 17.96, with a close near its highs @ 17.93.

Price action is continuing to be bullish and looks poised to test the next upside resistance levels:
* 3rd area is the MR2: 18.14
* 4th area is around the sym tri objective and the 461 fib projection: 18.27-18.30


Sunday, September 22, 2013

Sugar

Thursday saw a strong close, after it's gap up open, closing at its highs.  Friday's action saw higher prices on selling with a close just at the 20 WMA and 100 DMA.  This area once again served as resistance with prices closing in the area for the 2nd consecutive week.

Downside support:
* 1st area is at the rising window (gap), the MR1, and the 10 DMA: 17.51-17.54
* 2nd area is at the recent swing low (doji candle) and the 20 & 50 DMA: 17.35-17.43
If we take both of these levels out, then the recent bullish action turns neutral to bearish.

Upside resistance:
* 1st area continues to be the current resistance, which is the 20 WMA and 100 DMA
* 2nd area is the 361 fib projection from the dominant ABCD pattern: 17.96
* 3rd area is the MR2: 18.14
* 4th area is around the sym tri objective and the 461 fib projection: 18.27-18.30
We'd like to see some of these areas taken out in the next 2 weeks to keep the recent bounce intact.  The big picture pattern based off the weekly chart implies a potential bounce to 20.50 and possibly higher.  We have some major upside resistance to deal with, but it's very possible we're on our way to higher prices.


Thursday, September 19, 2013

Sugar

Recap where we left off after Sept 14th's post:
*Bulls want to see either a close above the 20 WMA and 100 DMA or support on any breaks around 17.30-17.43 (10 WMA along with 10, 20, and 50 DMA).
*Bears want to see prices close below that 17.30-17.43 area, which will set up a move to test that 16.70 low.

Update:
We saw this market pull back from the 17.71 resistance level over the next 3 days and it found support in the 17.30-17.43 area as shown on the daily chart.  Yesterday's trading saw a doji candle form right in this support area closing above the 10, 20, and 50 DMA.

The attached charts were taken early this morning, so it contains the overnight action in Sugar.  We saw a gap up opening from this support area, which is very bullish.  We are looking more likely to make another run at that 17.71 resistance level.  Let's see if we can close above it this week.


Saturday, September 14, 2013

Sugar

In my last post I mentioned the next big hurdle for the Sugar market was:
* to get a close above the 20 WMA, currently around 17.70, which would be the first since 9/30 of 2012 (highlighted in dark blue)

Well, the 20 WMA officially closed @ 17.71 and the weekly close for Sugar was 17.68.  It met expected resistance at this level and closed below.  This area also coincides with the 100 DMA @ 17.73.  It will be interesting to see what this market does next week.  Will it break through this resistance or retrace back?

Bulls want to see either a close above the 20 WMA and 100 DMA or support on any breaks around 17.30-17.43 (10 WMA along with 10, 20, and 50 DMA).

Bears want to see prices close below that 17.30-17.43 area, which will set up a move to test that 16.70 low.

Weekly Chart:

Daily Chart:




Wednesday, September 11, 2013

Sugar

Here's the chart:

Sugar

Sugar looks poised for a nice bounce when looking at the weekly chart of the March 2014 contract. The current downtrend off last October's highs has found support at the 361/261 fib combo of the dominating and 1st level supporting ABCD patterns. The dominating ABCD had a deep retracement with slightly left handed skewing (8:9). The 1st level supporting ABCD had medium deep retracement with left handed skewing (3:8). These two combine to form a weak moving downtrend that could create a rally that retraces between 50 and 61 pct of the move down. That puts the long term target between 20.50 and 21.50. However, that is a longer term view.

Shorter term objectives include:
* 18.28, the sym triangle pattern obj
* 18.70-19.00, the fib cluster of resistance along with the 50 WMA
* 19.38, the 261 fib projection of the potential ABCD pattern forming off the recent lows

Some potential clues a short term to medium term bottom is in place:
* support @ 361/261 fib combo as mentioned above
* 2nd level and 3rd level 361 fib projections in the same area as the major 361/261 cluster
* decreasing time of ABCD patterns shows loss of momentum (bars: 17, 11, 11, 6)
* oversold RSI @ the 7/14 bottom
* failure to take out the 7/14 low on the recent retest
* close above the 10 WMA
* confirmation of a sym tri reversal pattern
* seasonal strength from late Sep to early Nov

Next big hurdle:
* to get a close above the 20 WMA, currently around 17.70, which would be the first since 9/30 of 2012 (highlighted in dark blue)

Chart to follow later.