Nasdaq

The market took me out of both my short positions today after the FOMC meeting. The symmetrical triangle pattern failed as well as the hanging man pattern. This market has shown good resilience the past few weeks and I'm officially on the sidelines on this market. I'm turning my attention to a solid set-up in Silver (long side) and potential set-ups in Hogs (long), Wheat (long), and Cotton (long).

Nasdaq

The symmetrical triangle pattern was confirmed today with a close below 1599.00, so I didn't close out my position. Also, even though we seen some late buying off the lows we ran into resistance at the 1597-1600 level. This level was the 38% retracement of today's range and contained two pivot points (DS1 and WS1). We were also able to get a lower closing low and close below the 10 day EMA. It's the first time since July 10th that we closed below that moving average. Friday we had to deal with unemployment and now tomorrow we get to deal with the FOMC decision. Another interesting day shaping up.

Nasdaq

There's a potential symmetrical triangle pattern forming and a close below 1599.00 today will confirm it. I got short @ 1599 and will exit on the close if the market doesn't hold this level. The target is 1561 with an initial stop @ 1626. I'm also still short from 1612.50 on the hang man pattern. The Nasdaq failed to take out it's 1632.50 high and we finally got the MACD crossover. We are getting strong selling early this morning, but the key will be how we close the day. Will we get another rally and close back above 1600? or will the sellers finally gain the edge?

Nasdaq

They don't say "stay with the trend" for nothing. The past two weeks have shown signs of an upcoming down move, but timing is everything. This market has now closed above 1600 nine days in a row. Everytime it looks like we are going to get a break, the market has found buyers below 1600. Today's unemployment report was better than expected (if a loss of any amount of jobs is good news) causing some buying. I'm still holding my short position with a stop at 1633. I want a new high to take me out of this trade. Interesting enough both the S&P and Dow made new highs today in the futures markets, but the Nasdaq did not take out highs. The Nasdaq has been the leader on this recent move up and could be a warning sign against higher highs. I will be paying close attention to this come Monday. If the Nasdaq doesn't take out 1632.50, we could finally see the break down as MACD continues to show declining momentum and a crossover looks eminent.

Nasdaq

We finally got the first lower closing low since this recent up move began in early July and we got back to back black candles. This confirms a change in trend direction with MACD and Stochastics ready for bearish crossovers. I'd feel very confident in a nice retracement if not for unemployment tomorrow, so all bets are off. We didn't get the double top confirmation today, but will possibly get it tomorrow. I'm still holding my short position that I entered yesterday and will look to get short below 1598.50 some additional contracts. I hope the market sells off before the report to give my stops some room. If not, I may have to exit my positions and re-enter once market action gives its direction.

Nasdaq

We didn't get the lower closing low that I wanted, but I decided not to exit my position on the close. The hang man pattern from yesterday got confirmation with a close below it's body (though I like to see a close below the low). We saw the market bounce off its lows of 1602.50 where there was support from two pivot point numbers (DS2 1605.41 & WP 1604.17), but did settle below its DS1 of 1617.83. What this market needs in order to gather some selling momentum is some lower closing lows, which we haven't seen since this rally began on July 8th. To add further interest to the downside, we have a double top formation looming. A close below 1598.50 will confirm it with an target around 1565.25. Finally, MACD looks ready for a crossover combined with its slowing momentum despite higher highs in prices. Friday's report is shaping up to be extremely important to give this market some near term direction.

Nasdaq

This market is continuing to give signs of a sell-off. We had yet another candle pattern form yesterday- the hang man. This recent rally is running on fumes now. The only thing missing is the sellers! Maybe we need a strong up move that gets strongly reversed; or maybe we will get the selling after Friday's unemployment. Either way in order for this rally to continue in a healthy manner we need to see a retracement. I'm looking to short below yesterday's low and will exit if we don't settle below it.

Nasdaq

Well my short position was never triggered today and the market rallied and closed near its highs. It did meet some resistance at the DR2 level of 626.67, but closed slightly above @ 626.75. I'm still looking to short this market, but not at these levels. Need to see some more confirming bearish action in the next few days before I commit now.

Nasdaq

There is a potential shorting opportunity shaping up in the mini NASD 100 contract. The past 5 trading sessions have produced 2 doji candles and back to back shooting stars all around a confluence of pivot points. This recent up move is losing steam as also confirmed by the loss of momentum in the MACD. I'm looking to initiate a short position under 1598.50. If we can get a close below this level it will be the first lower closing day in a couple weeks and will be a second consecutive bearish closing candle. This would confirm the uptrend is over and a retracement of some kind is coming. Also, keep an eye out for a MACD and 80 Stochastic level cross. The first level of significant support comes in around 1575-1580 level, then around the 1545-1550 level. Stiff resistance around 1626-1632 levels. I like a stop placement above 1632 and a initial target of 1515.

Sep Crude Oil

I tightened my stop loss today due to bullish action yesterday and was stopped out @ 65.80 for a loss of 650.00. The market proceeded to close above our intitial stop, so it was a good move to tighten up. I now like Crude to the upside and will look for buying opportunities on pullbacks.

Sep Crude Oil

We didn't get the follow through selling yesterday and the market found support @ the 10, 20, 50, and 100 day EMA's. The weekly chart is also very bullish for crude, so we will look for confirmation selling today or exit our position. I also may use a tighter trailing stop today.

Sep Crude Oil

Yesterday's closing price action in Crude presented a good shorting opportunity. A star candle pattern formed last night on the daily chart. This pattern had greater significance because it formed at previous support of 67.22; at the 50% retracement level of the recent move down; and at a confluence of 3 pivot points (DR2, MS1, WR1). Finally, the risk/reward ratio on this trade is very good. The main obstacles to this trade are that as of yesterday's close, price remained about the 10, 20, 50, and 100 day EMA's. I will look to short @ 64.50 with a stop @ 66.70 for a total risk of 1100.00 per mini contract.

Corn Update

The symmetrical triangle pattern hit our initial stop today @ 435.75 after being triggered @ 447.75. This pattern failed confirmation and got stopped out in the same day for a loss of 600.00 on a one lot. July Corn came within one tick of the 450.00 level, which proved to offer stiff resistance and immediately sold off.

Corn

The symmetrical triangle pattern for July Corn was triggered today- I'm Long from 447.75. We need a close above here to confirm this pattern. If not exit on the close. The target is 466.50 with a stop loss @ 435.75. The reward/risk ratio is 1.62. The main obstacle to this trade is the 450.00 area (previous swing high).

Potential Trade Patterns (Samurai)

The symmetrical triangle pattern to the downside in July Corn never triggered, but there's still a potential breakout to either side. An upside breakout looks possible and I'd look to get long @ 447.50.

The double top in Aug Cocoa never hit its trigger and made new highs today. No trade idea currently.

Potential Trade Patterns (Samurai)

There's a potential double top pattern forming in the Sep Cocoa. A close below 2663 tomorrow would activate this pattern. Look to get short @ 2662 and exit on close if market is not below.

There's a potential symmetrical triangle pattern forming in July Corn. A close below 433.75 tomorrow would confirm this pattern. Look to get short @ 433.50 and exit on close if market not below.

Cotton

Wednesday saw quiet action and no real attempt was made to the downside. It closed right on it's upward sloping trendline. Thursday saw immediate selling and our downside objective of 54.25 was hit at the end of the day for a $1091.00 winner on a one lot.

Possible Trade Setup Update

The trigger price of 434 was not reached on Wednesday, therefore the symmetrical and ascending triangle patterns were not initiated.

Possible Trade Setup

We have two possible trade patterns forming again in July Corn- an ascending triangle and a symmetrical triangle. The ascending triangle needs to break out tomorrow and the symmetrical triangle still has a couple days. I'm looking to buy a break up at 434 on the sym tri and 435 on the asc tri. Stops to be placed at 422.25 and 424.00, respectively. Corn found support at it's 10 day EMA today, but in consolidation mode the past 2 weeks.

Cotton

Cotton closed @ 55.06 today, confirming the downward symmetrical triangle pattern. The low of the day was 54.51, which was within 25% of our objective. Therefore, I have moved my stop to breakeven. The market had resistance at its 10 day EMA for it's 5 day in a row and finally closed below its 20 day EMA. Support was found @ an upward sloping trendline off the 3/30 low. I expect the objective to be hit tomorrow.

Possible Trade Setups Update

Well the July Corn ascending triangle pattern never got triggered today to the upside and sold off overnight through the lower boundary. So this pattern can't be activated today. We will wait and see if a new potential pattern is created by today's trade. All orders were cancelled.

The July Cotton symmetrical triangle pattern broke out to the downside overnight (so the upside breakout is off the table). I decided to take this trade after all. I got short @ 56.45, with a stop of 57.45 and a profit target of 54.25. The reward is 1091.00 and risk is 509.00 on a one lot. The 20 day EMA @ 56.38 is the main obstacle. It hasn't closed below it since 3/27.

Possible Trade Setups

There are two potential trading opportunities for Tuesday. The first one is an ascending triangle pattern in July Corn. Look to get long @ 435.00 with an intitial stop @ 422.50. The profit objective of this pattern is ~463.25. The reward is 1425.00 and risk is 612.50 on a one lot. Current price is above the 10, 20, 50, 100 day EMA's; RSI is bullish; MACD is bullish; and short-term trend is up. Possible resistance is ~ 449.25 (2009 contract high).

The second potential pattern is a symmetrical triangle in July Cotton. This pattern can break out to either the upside or downside. Since the 2 month trend is bullish, we will look to trade the upside breakout if it occurs. Look to enter long ~ 57.50 with an inital stop @ 56.40. The profit objective of this pattern is ~ 59.75. The reward is 1130.00 and risk is 550.00 on a one lot. Current price is > 20, 50, 100 day EMA's; RSI is bullish; MACD is positive; short-term trend is up. Obstacles include MACD signal line is bearish; 5 day resistance @ 10 day EMA; weekly resistance ~ 38% retracement area; long-term trend is bearish.

Feed Cattle

We saw a big rally in feeder today and we were stopped out at breakeven on our position. The short term outlook now looks bullish stessing the importance of trade management. By trailing our stop we were able to prevent a losing trade. Also, some people may have gotten out for a small winner once the market signaled a short term reversal on 5/4. The market formed a harami candlestick and a key bar reversal on bar charts. I chose to ride out the position to breakeven. That concludes coverage on this position. More to come soon.

Feed Cattle

The market attempted a rally yesterday, but found resistance at the downward sloping trendline, the 50% retracement, the 10 day EMA, and the 20 day EMA. It did close back above the 50 day EMA. We are currently closer to our breakeven stop than our target, so position losing some steam.

Cotton

Cotton never get under the trigger of 56.55 so no position was taken. Also, the highs were taken out so the spinning top is now negated. However, the market saw rejection at @ 461.80% extreme fib extension. We also saw the market close below the 50% mark for the day and is extremely overbought with an RSI of 78.96. I expect a much needed correction is coming and I'm looking to short below yesterday's low of 56.97.

Feed Cattle

We saw some real quiet action yesterday and a very narrow trading range. The market may test the 50 day EMA today.

Cotton

I have a potential trade set-up from my Ninja fund in July Cotton. This market has made a tremendous move up the past 8 weeks and is in overbought territory. Today also saw a spinning top candle formation, which is indicating a potential loss of momentum. Additionally, the current level is at two 361.80% extreme fibonacci projection levels. I'm looking to get short under today's lows ~ 56.55. If this level is triggered, my stop loss will be @ 57.45 with a potential target area ~ 51.75.

Feed Cattle

We got within 0.225 of the target today, then the market bounced higher. When the market is within 25% of my target area I move my stop to breakeven. So we have a riskless trade right now. The market is still short term bearish, but the stronger close is a concern.

Feed Cattle

We saw some good follow through selling today getting the break below 98.875. There's not much bullish news to the current position other than support @ the 61.80 retracement level. Otherwise, we really got everything on our side right now: close @ low levels for the day; close below 50 day EMA, 50% retracement, previous swing low, Monthly R1, and Weekly S2. We are roughly 24% away from our target so consider moving your stop lower to either the 100.60 or breakeven levels.

Feed Cattle

Today was all about the reaction to the downward sloping trendline. It met stiff rejection, but closed off it's lows on the close. Today's action saw resistance @ the trendline and 10 day EMA; we saw support @ 50 day EMA, 50% retracement, Weekly S2, and Monthly R1. We did see a close back < Weekly S1. Tomorrow is setting up to be a very interesting day. The 50 day EMA and 50% retracement level have been offering solid support the past 4 days. If we can get a close below the previous swing low of 99.05, then it shouldn't be long before the objective of 97.575 is reached.

Feed Cattle

Well we did get that bounce today off the 50% retracement level and the 50 day EMA. The market closed back above the 20 day EMA; weekly S1, S2; and monthly R1, too. Resistance was found @ the 10 day EMA and the downward sloping trendline off the previous two swing highs. We are still seeing lower highs and lower lows, but today's action changed the tone from bearish to neutral. I'm keeping my stop @ 101.80 for now. Tomorrow's key will be the reaction to the downward trendline.

Feed Cattle

We saw some bearish action today: closed down 0.70 and near it's lows; closed below the weekly S1 and S2; closed slightly below the 50% retracement; and met resistance @ 20 day EMA. It did find support at 50 day EMA. Let's see if we get a bounce off the 50 day and retracement level or if we get more selling.

Feed Cattle

Today was definitely an interesting day. The market had a gap down open due to news of the Swine Flu. I don't initiate positions on big gaps, so I waited for the market to fill the gap. Then I entered short when the market traded back down through 100.125. Today's closing price was 99.75 confirming the H&S Top pattern. It found support @ the 50% retracement of the recent move up, and both the weekly S1 and S2 pivot points. These areas will be our next obstacles along with the 50 day EMA.

Feed Cattle

Friday's action made a late attempt at the 100.125 breakout level, but didn't get there. It closed @ 100.35 and stayed below it's 10 day EMA for a second day in a row. We got a slight bearish cross on the MACD and I expect a breakout attempt on Monday. The key will be to get through support of a previous swing high @ 100.025, the 20 day EMA, and the 38% retracement level of the current short term uptrend.

Feed Cattle

There's a potential Head & Shoulders Top forming in the Aug Feed Cattle. Look to get short below 100.125. The target would be around 97.575 with an initial stop at 101.80. This trade set-up would have a risk of 825.00 and a reward of 1285.50 (1.56 ratio). MACD has a possible bearish cross and a previous swing low was taken out, which supports this set-up. Obstacles to this trade include the 38% retracement and 20 EMA at the breakout level, and a bullish RSI (+50). Let's see what happens tomorrow.