Cocoa (update)

Today saw heavy selling with a close below the monthly S2 pivot and near its lows of the day.  The bullish position took major damage, but there is still some support above 1840.  If we break below that level, then this pattern fails.  Will this market try and form a double bottom pattern or seek even lower prices?

  

Facebook (update)

FB made new all time highs again today with a high of 137.18 and found resistance @ the monthly R1 @ 137.14.  I expect this stock to reach my resistance zone this week.  I strongly believe FB is setting up for a nice short trade.

Cocoa (update)

We briefly traded above the 10 DMA today, but it served as overhead resistance once again.   We look poised to test the monthly S2 pivot below @ 1944.  Our recent bounce still looks healthy despite its sideways action over the past week.  I will start getting concerned if we fail to hold above 1944.

Nasdaq (Update)

Today was a pretty quiet day with a small trading range and found resistance @ the monthly R2 pivot (5350.75) for the 4^th time in 5 days.  Tomorrow is the end of February, so monthly pivots change on Wednesday.  Things should get more interesting by weeks’ end with unemployment on Friday.  Until then, we might chop around sideways.

Nasdaq (update)

We made new recent highs today on selling and we had a close below the previous days' low.  This is the first sign of weakness we've seen since January 31st.  Prices continue to find resistance at the lower end of the Fib cluster zone.  This market is definitely overextended and I wouldn't be surprised to find some sideways action over the next week to shake off the bullish energy.  Ideally, I'd like to see some minor retracement before making another test of the highs.  If we could get a double top form up in the Fib cluster zone along with a bearish Japanese candle pattern, then I'd be pretty confident a longer term top is in place.  Let's continue to watch how prices unfold over the next week.  Next downside support seen ~ 5293.93 (10 DMA), 5241.25 (monthly R1), 5233.67 (20 DMA).

Cocoa (update)

We saw prices close back above the 10 DMA and the monthly S1 pivot, which was a positive sign.  It still looks to be forming a measured move pattern to the upside.  We just need a break above 2060 and this gets activated with Fib projection targets.  For now, next upside resistance remains the 20 DMA @ 2037.  Let's see if we can close the week out strong with prices above the 10 DMA, 20 DMA, monthly S1 pivot while forming a measured move pattern.  This would give some validation to the recent bottom.

Facebook

I normally don't look at stocks, but came across an interesting set-up developing in Facebook.  I see a fib cluster of resistance ~ 137.50 to 146.50.  This cluster contains fib projections from 5 different measured moves as seen on a weekly chart.  They date back as far as 2014 and give us a 1st resistance window of 137.46 to 150.73.  More importantly, if we look more locally, we have 3 measured moves made off the November 14 swing low @ 113.55.  These 3 MM's give a fib projection cluster ~ 134.95 to 155.47.  So, we basically have a range of 134.95 to 155.47.  I can narrow down this range to ~ 137.50 to 146.50 for a higher probability set-up with 141-144 being the potential sweet spot.  I will look for additional supporting clues as we trade higher into this range.

Swiss Franc (last update)

This morning prices took out the 9880 low with a bigger time frame than all previous measured moves.  Therefore, this pattern is now void.  We were able to retrace back to the 50% level (low end of the target), but the volume @ price range proved to be too strong of resistance.  

Nasdaq (update)

My next resistance zone to watch is 5350-5410 and today's high @ 5353.75 reached the lower end of it.  It found some resistance right around the monthly R2 @ 5350.75, but still managed to close near its highs yet again.  This market has been extremely bullish repeatedly making closing highs above previous day's highs along with closes near its daily high.  There's no supporting signals showing any signs of weakness, but I'm curious to see what happens as we trade into this resistance zone.

Cocoa (update)

We saw a continuation of selling from Friday, with a close back below the monthly S1 and 10 DMA.  We did manage to hold above monthly S2 and closed near the highs of the day.  We might see prices trade sideways for a couple days to form a measured move before moving to the upside.  We don't want to re-test the recent lows, so it's important to hold on to the recent gains.  Near term resistance is again the 10 and 20 DMA along with the monthly S1.

 

Swiss Franc (update)

Prices failed to trade above the volume @ price resistance area and has sold off since reaching it.  If we take out the low @ 9880, then this pattern becomes void as the most recent time range would be bigger than the previous ones.  Thereby, it would become the dominant measured move.

Nasdaq (update)

This market keeps seeing closing prices above the previous days high and near the top of the current days range.  This is very bullish, but we are approaching my 2nd possible resistance zone @ 5350 to 5410.  There is a fib cluster of four 361s fib extensions in this zone along with a monthly R2, which could stall this rally.

Swiss Franc (update)

That volume @ price range continued to act as upside resistance today as the market sold off and we closed below all four moving averages on the 240M chart.  This did some damage to the recent rally, but we are still closer to the recent high than low.  We could see some sideways action over the next couple days.

Cocoa (update)

After two strong days of buying, sellers took control today.  We closed back below the 20 DMA and the monthly S1, but held above the 10 DMA.  We also got a bullish crossover on the MACD, so today's selling didn't hurt the momentum of the 2 day rally.  But, we definitely would like to see prices close back above the 20 DMA and make a run at the falling window.

Swiss Franc (update)

Yesterday, I mentioned a minimum target zone of 1.0002 to 1.0055 which also contained a large volume @ price profile that could act as resistance.  The high today was 1.0046, so we met the low end of the target before stalling out.  It will be interesting to see if this level acts as further resistance tomorrow and pushes prices lower.  Or, if price action will blow through it and make a run at the 78% retracement area @ 1.0101.  We've also closed above the 10, 20, 50, and 100 DMA on the 240M chart.  We would like them to act as support on any downward movement.

Cocoa (update)

Today we saw more follow through buying and we closed above some of the upside resistance I listed yesterday:

1994  10 DMA

2017  Monthly S1

2049  20 DMA
Ideally, we'd like to see these levels serve as support going forward.

Here are the next areas of possible resistance:

2134  Falling Window
2145  Monthly P
2167  50 DMA
2218  Monthly R1

Swiss Franc (update)

We saw buyers come in at the top of my support zone and push prices higher.  We also got some bullish divergence on the RSI, as seen on the 240M chart below.  The minimum upside target, if today's low holds, is the 50%-62% retracement zone ~ 1.0002 to 1.0055.  There's a high concentration of volume @ price at the bottom of that range that could serve as both a magnet and resistance.  If we get through it, then there's a good chance we could make a new swing high. Finally, the initial support zone is still intact as well if prices make new lows in the next day or two.

Nasdaq (update)

And the rally continues...today we saw prices push through the top of my 1st resistance zone @ 5198-5306.  My next resistance zone comes in @ 5350-5410.  This area is stronger than the 1st resistance zone and I'm very interested to see it reach it.  There's a fib cluster of four 361 extensions from the 4 main measured moves.  There's also a S2 resistance pivot @ 5350.75, which comes at the bottom of this range.  I will be looking for any signs of a top in this area or if something develops sooner.

 

Cocoa (update)

Price action the past 2 days is exactly the type that can trigger a bottom.  Yesterday, we had a doji pattern and today we had a close above yesterday's high turning it into a high close doji (HCD).  It's very possible that today's low @ 1890 could hold as we made new lows on buying.  I don't want to see selling pressure return tomorrow as that could wipe out this rally attempt.

Upside resistance (highlighted if met):

1994  10 DMA

2017  Daily S1

2049  20 DMA

2134  Falling Window

2145  Daily P

Swiss Franc (update)

The March contract is now trading in my support zone (9775-9915), so it's time to look for a possible bottom.  The first nice pocket of support is @ 9872-9885.  The second pocket is @ 9840-9860 and the third pocket, which I really like, is @ 9808-9831.  RSI is still not showing bullish divergence and there's really no other supporting clues yet.  But, the S1 pivot @ 9841 and the 78% retracement level @ 9812 are key areas to watch.

Nasdaq (update)

This market continues to push higher with bullish momentum.  Prices have been closing near their highs the past week.  However, we are approaching possible upside resistance ~ 5293 to 5306.  This is the upper end of my resistance zone 1.  If these levels are taken out, then I see the next area of resistance ~ 5350 to 5410.

Cocoa (update)

The March contract rolled into May, so I have to adjust my numbers a bit.  Yesterday, we formed a star doji pattern.  This is the first sign of exhaustion on the recent sell-off.  Shorts should consider some profits down here.  I'm also showing possible support between 1845 and 1890, which is the very bottom of my support zone.   If we break through these levels, then I will have to re-analyze this market further.

Swiss Franc

The Swiss Franc is approaching a potential support zone that could trigger a nice upside move.  The recent downward trend from the Jan 31 high has been weak when looking at the retracements of the measured moves.  The dominant mm has a deep retracement and the 1st level supporting mm has a medium deep retracement.  The fib projections from these along with a few others are providing a nice support zone ~ 0.9775 to 0.9915.  I will be looking for more clues of a potential turn if we trade down into this area.

Markets To Watch...

Aside from 2 markets (Cocoa & Nasdaq 100) that are currently in active support/resistance zones, there are 3 other markets worth checking out.  All are approaching possible turning points, but need to be watched closer for additional clues.

Corn:
Resistance Zone ~ 388-402
Possible sweet spot  ~ 415-422

Wheat:
Resistance Zone ~ 472-500
Possible sweet spot ~ 490-500

Cotton:
Resistance Zone ~ 79.00-83.50
Possible sweet spot ~ 82.25-83.50

All 3 markets are close to becoming in play and I will make further posts as they develop.

Cocoa (update)

Cocoa has been getting hammered since February began and is showing no signs of slowing down.  It's getting close to the bottom of my support zone (1848-2011) and it will be interesting to see if it holds.  I have support showing as far down as 1775, but if that level is breached then this market will have just blown through all possible support.  However, the most recent leg down is showing signs of capitulation and I would love to see a bullish candlestick form soon.  Maybe a hammer or engulfing pattern.  The next most interesting levels to watch is 1850-1875.

Nasdaq 100 (update)

The Nasdaq 100 is currently trading in my 1st resistance zone of 5198-5306.  Price action is looking very strong so far and there's no real supporting clues at the moment to support a top.  There is still solid resistance levels working in this zone, but would need to see more evidence to call a potential top.  If prices break through 5306, then I see the next possible resistance zone ~ 5310-5415.  Let's first watch to see how prices continue to react below 5306.

Nasdaq 100

Good morning,
The Nasdaq 100 has been rallying since Feb 2016 with only a few noteworthy corrections.  We've seen a huge rally (~ 7%) since the presidential election and everyone is talking about whether it will continue or not.  My analysis tells me we could be headed into some resistance between 5198 and 5306.  Yesterday's closing price was 5175.25, so we are very close.  First, here's the set-up:

* The rally since Nov 2016 has produced 4 measured moves shown on a daily chart.
  * Dominant: medium deep retracement with 2:6 left-handed skewing
  * Supporting 1: deep retracement with 4:5 left-handed skewing
  * Supporting 2: neutral retracement with 3:4 left-handed skewing
  * Supporting 3: supershallow retracement with 3:5 left-handed skewing
* Dominant and Supporting 1 measured moves have medium deep and deep retracements, which implies that a correction could retrace at least 1/2 to 2/3rds of the recent rally.  We just need to look at Fib projections to determine a possible resistance range, which I calculate as 5198 to 5306.  I will show this range in blue on a daily chart below.
* We also have a major measured move from a weekly chart giving a 261 Fib projection ~ 5251.00
* Next we need to look at the most recent leg up to try and pinpoint a turn.  I will do that with a 240 min chart below.
* Finally, we need to watch closely for any additional supporting clues of a possible top like a bearish Japanese candle pattern or a double top, for example.

Summary:
I feel we are approaching a potential top in the Nasdaq 100 and I will be watching this market closely over the next couple weeks.  If we do get a correction, I believe it could be a pretty decent one.

Cocoa (update)

It's been almost a week since my first post on Cocoa and we've seen strong selling down into my support zone the past few days.  Here's a quick reminder of where I see possible buyers coming in to form a bottom:
2011  S1 Pivot
1983  Dec 2011 swing low
1982  461/361 Fib combo
1932  S2 Pivot
1910  Sep 2014-Oct 2016 range bound target
1848  461/461 Fib combo

We've also got some downside targets forming based off the move down from late January.  In addition, let's focus on the most recent move down from Jan 31st.  We have 2 measured moves that have formed.  The dominant measured move has a very deep retracement with 5:3 right handed skewing.  The supporting measured move has a shallow retracement with 5:1 right handed skewing.  It's this last move down that can help pinpoint a possible turn.  Here are the Fib combo's where a short term bounce may occur:
261/261  1989
361/361  1939
461/461  1889

These levels all occur right in the middle of my support zone of 1848-2011.  It's this small pattern that may trigger the longer term bounce I'm predicting.  We need to watch this unfold further to see if any more supporting signals are given.  I've included a 240 minute chart below that shows the most recent price action.  The blue box is my projected support zone.

Cocoa

My analysis has this market poised for a nice upside reversal and price action the past 2 months looks to be grinding down towards a potential bottom.

First, here's my analysis overview:
-The dominant measured move has a deep retracement with 25:20 right-handed skewing.
-The supporting1 measured move has a deep retracement with 13:15 left-handed skewing.
-These 2 deep retracements call for an expected bounce back up to at least the 50.0 to 61.8 pct retracement levels of the 5-3-16 high and the upcoming turn.
-These 2 measured moves also have Fib projections of potential support zones.  We are currently trading near one (361/361 combo @ 2122).  The next one is the 461/361 combo @ 1982 followed by the 461/461 combo @ 1848.
-I believe we will see an upside rally form near one of these 3 Fib zones and just need to look for more supporting clues of a potential bottom.

Second, here's some supporting clues:
-The market has been grinding down the past 2 months and I like to describe this as the market shaking off it bearish energy.
-The majority of the measured moves within this grind down phase have had medium deep to deep retracements with left-handed skewing.  This signals a weak downtrend.  Also, the time ranges on them have been getting smaller the past month, which signals a decrease in momentum.  Finally, the Fib projections from these measured moves all cluster into either the 461/361 combo or the 461/461 combo stated earlier.  This just strengthens those support levels if the market trades down to them.
-We have bullish divergence on the RSI, which points to a weakening of downside momentum.  We almost always see this at major market turns.
-We have some pivot point support levels coming up that could serve as strong support coupled with all the above (S1 @ 2011 and S2 @ 1932).
-We have a swing low coming up @ 1983 on the continuous chart.  This level was last reach back in December 2011.  We saw major support in this area last time, so we could get buyers stepping in again at these levels.
-We were range bound between September 2014 and October 2016, with the high in September 2014 and the low in February 2015.  We finally broke through this range back in October and the size of it projects a level down to ~ 1910.  This falls in place with other major support.

Summary:
I feel we are close to a bottom and should see one set up somewhere between 1850 and current levels.  The key will be to see more supporting clues form like a double bottom pattern or a bullish Japanese candlestick pattern, for example.