British Pound (update)

We saw continued strength yesterday after the FOMC meeting with prices pushing through the 5/14 high and more buyers so far today.  We reached two more upside targets and closed out of the aggressive position @ 1.5800.  Also, we now have a new dominant structure as the time range has exceeded the original one by 2x.  I've redrawn to demonstrate.  It has a neutral retracement and neutral (11:12) skewing.  There is a smaller pattern within this bigger one with a very deep retracement and left handed (1:3) skewing. 

Here's what's remaining from my original analysis:
Current Positions:
**moderatively aggressive: @ 1.5356 with trailing stp @ 1.5615; tgt @ 1.5953

Closed Positions:
**conserative: @ 1.5374 with stp @ 1.5193; closed @ 1.5625 for Profit
**aggressive: @ 1.5286 with stp @ 1.5073; closed @ 1.5800 for Profit

Potential Upside Targets:
1) 78.60% Level: 1.5659 (tgt met)
2) 5/14 High: 1.5800 (tgt met)
3) 2.618 Level: 1.5834 (tgt met)
4) 1.00 Level: 1.5953

British Pound (update)

We saw prices reach the symmetrical triangle objective of 1.5625 yesterday and stop just short of the 78.60 retracement zone @ 1.5659.  Buyers continued the momentum this morning and so far have pushed prices past the MR1 @ 1.5689 and are knocking on the door to reach the 5/14 High of 1.5800.  We have sustained a nice rally the past 8 days, but we have the FOMC decision later today.  Let's see how this market reacts this afternoon.

Current Positions:
**aggressive: @ 1.5286 with stp @ 1.5073
**moderatively aggressive: @ 1.5356 with stp @ 1.5073

Closed Positions:
**conserative: @ 1.5374 with stp @ 1.5193; closed @ 1.5625 for Profit

Potential Upside Targets:
1) 78.60% Level: 1.5659: tgt met
2) 5/14 High: 1.5800
3) 2.618 Level: 1.5834
4) 1.00 Level: 1.5953

British Pound (update)

Let's recap price action for the past week in the Pound.  It was very bullish as we saw buyers come in every day last week pushing prices above the Monthly Pivot and the 10, 20, 50, and 100 DMA's.  We also got a bullish MACD crossover signal on Thursday.  Finally, we saw the market break out of a symmetrical triangle pattern on Wednesday.  The objective of this pattern is ~ 1.5625, just below the 78.60% retracement level @ 1.5659.  This small range will be the next area of upside resistance followed by MR1 @ 1.5689, and the 5/14 high @ 1.5800.

Current Positions:
**aggressive: @ 1.5286 with stp @ 1.5073
**moderatively aggressive: @ 1.5356 with stp @ 1.5073
**conserative: @ 1.5374 with stp @ 1.5193

Potential Upside Targets:
1) 78.60% Level:  1.5659
2) 5/14 High:         1.5800
3) 2.618 Level:      1.5834
4) 1.00 Level:        1.5953

Cocoa (update)

They key quote from last Monday's post was:
" This downside pattern is still intact, but is voided if it takes out the 5/21 high @ 3181 after 6/11. The 20 DMA is currently the next level of support needed to be taken out in order to see more downside action."
Well we saw the 20 DMA hold all week and bounced on Friday closing at it's highest level since 5/26.  This set up follow through buying on today's open taking out the 5/21 high @ 3181 voiding this pattern.  We never got the deeper retracement I was looking for and the 20 DMA ultimately was to strong a support level to break at this time.

Cocoa (update)

It's been a few days since my last post, so let's catch up in this market.  We found support last Monday and Tuesday at the 20 DMA and got a nice bounce Tuesday off this level closing back above the 10 DMA.  We stayed above the 10 DMA on Wednesday and Thursday, but got no follow through buying as a piercing line candle formed on Thursday.  We closed back below the 10 DMA on Friday, but found support yet again at the 20 DMA.  This market is currently grinding sideways before it makes its next move higher or lower.  This downside pattern is still intact, but is voided if it takes out the 5/21 high @ 3181 after 6/11.  The 20 DMA is currently the next level of support needed to be taken out in order to see more downside action.

 

 

British Pound (update)

It's been a a few days since my last post, so let's catch up on this market.  We've been chopping sideways the past 5 days and are currently below all 4 moving averages that I follow so this pattern is currently looking weak.  However, this pattern is still intact as we have not taken out the 5/4/15 low @ 1.5109.  Also, we would've gotten long on 6/3 @ 1.5356 (tick above previous day's highs).  So it's possible we'd currently be long from 2 different entries: aggressive @ 1.5286 and moderatively aggressive @ 1.5356 with stops placed @ 1.5073.  Next point of entry would be after a candlestick pattern forms.

British Pound (update)

Thursday and Friday price action saw continued weakness, but the rising window still held as support.  You need a close below 1.5254 to nullify it.  The 100 DMA held as support on Thursday, but broke on Friday closing below.  The 50 DMA held as support on both days, but is the last of the 4 moving averages still holding as support.  We are currently trading below it early Monday morning.  This pattern is not looking good as of right now, but the key level to hold is 1.5074.  Once we break below that level, then the pattern is void.  However, we'd really like to see the currentl area hold as support and create a reversal to be confident in getting long.  If we were aggressive, we'd be long already a small position.  A more conservative entry is above Friday's high.  Finally, we could wait for a reversal bar or candlestick pattern to form before entering.

Cocoa (Update)

Thursday price action initiated a short position @ 3112 based on the engulfing pattern from Wednesday.  The 10 DMA held as support both Wednesday and Thursday, but finally broke on Friday with a close below.  Next areas of potential support are the 20 DMA ~ 3061, the new June Pivot @ 3042, and the 3/3 high @ 3023.