Cotton

Wednesday saw quiet action and no real attempt was made to the downside. It closed right on it's upward sloping trendline. Thursday saw immediate selling and our downside objective of 54.25 was hit at the end of the day for a $1091.00 winner on a one lot.

Possible Trade Setup Update

The trigger price of 434 was not reached on Wednesday, therefore the symmetrical and ascending triangle patterns were not initiated.

Possible Trade Setup

We have two possible trade patterns forming again in July Corn- an ascending triangle and a symmetrical triangle. The ascending triangle needs to break out tomorrow and the symmetrical triangle still has a couple days. I'm looking to buy a break up at 434 on the sym tri and 435 on the asc tri. Stops to be placed at 422.25 and 424.00, respectively. Corn found support at it's 10 day EMA today, but in consolidation mode the past 2 weeks.

Cotton

Cotton closed @ 55.06 today, confirming the downward symmetrical triangle pattern. The low of the day was 54.51, which was within 25% of our objective. Therefore, I have moved my stop to breakeven. The market had resistance at its 10 day EMA for it's 5 day in a row and finally closed below its 20 day EMA. Support was found @ an upward sloping trendline off the 3/30 low. I expect the objective to be hit tomorrow.

Possible Trade Setups Update

Well the July Corn ascending triangle pattern never got triggered today to the upside and sold off overnight through the lower boundary. So this pattern can't be activated today. We will wait and see if a new potential pattern is created by today's trade. All orders were cancelled.

The July Cotton symmetrical triangle pattern broke out to the downside overnight (so the upside breakout is off the table). I decided to take this trade after all. I got short @ 56.45, with a stop of 57.45 and a profit target of 54.25. The reward is 1091.00 and risk is 509.00 on a one lot. The 20 day EMA @ 56.38 is the main obstacle. It hasn't closed below it since 3/27.

Possible Trade Setups

There are two potential trading opportunities for Tuesday. The first one is an ascending triangle pattern in July Corn. Look to get long @ 435.00 with an intitial stop @ 422.50. The profit objective of this pattern is ~463.25. The reward is 1425.00 and risk is 612.50 on a one lot. Current price is above the 10, 20, 50, 100 day EMA's; RSI is bullish; MACD is bullish; and short-term trend is up. Possible resistance is ~ 449.25 (2009 contract high).

The second potential pattern is a symmetrical triangle in July Cotton. This pattern can break out to either the upside or downside. Since the 2 month trend is bullish, we will look to trade the upside breakout if it occurs. Look to enter long ~ 57.50 with an inital stop @ 56.40. The profit objective of this pattern is ~ 59.75. The reward is 1130.00 and risk is 550.00 on a one lot. Current price is > 20, 50, 100 day EMA's; RSI is bullish; MACD is positive; short-term trend is up. Obstacles include MACD signal line is bearish; 5 day resistance @ 10 day EMA; weekly resistance ~ 38% retracement area; long-term trend is bearish.

Feed Cattle

We saw a big rally in feeder today and we were stopped out at breakeven on our position. The short term outlook now looks bullish stessing the importance of trade management. By trailing our stop we were able to prevent a losing trade. Also, some people may have gotten out for a small winner once the market signaled a short term reversal on 5/4. The market formed a harami candlestick and a key bar reversal on bar charts. I chose to ride out the position to breakeven. That concludes coverage on this position. More to come soon.

Feed Cattle

The market attempted a rally yesterday, but found resistance at the downward sloping trendline, the 50% retracement, the 10 day EMA, and the 20 day EMA. It did close back above the 50 day EMA. We are currently closer to our breakeven stop than our target, so position losing some steam.

Cotton

Cotton never get under the trigger of 56.55 so no position was taken. Also, the highs were taken out so the spinning top is now negated. However, the market saw rejection at @ 461.80% extreme fib extension. We also saw the market close below the 50% mark for the day and is extremely overbought with an RSI of 78.96. I expect a much needed correction is coming and I'm looking to short below yesterday's low of 56.97.

Feed Cattle

We saw some real quiet action yesterday and a very narrow trading range. The market may test the 50 day EMA today.

Cotton

I have a potential trade set-up from my Ninja fund in July Cotton. This market has made a tremendous move up the past 8 weeks and is in overbought territory. Today also saw a spinning top candle formation, which is indicating a potential loss of momentum. Additionally, the current level is at two 361.80% extreme fibonacci projection levels. I'm looking to get short under today's lows ~ 56.55. If this level is triggered, my stop loss will be @ 57.45 with a potential target area ~ 51.75.

Feed Cattle

We got within 0.225 of the target today, then the market bounced higher. When the market is within 25% of my target area I move my stop to breakeven. So we have a riskless trade right now. The market is still short term bearish, but the stronger close is a concern.

Feed Cattle

We saw some good follow through selling today getting the break below 98.875. There's not much bullish news to the current position other than support @ the 61.80 retracement level. Otherwise, we really got everything on our side right now: close @ low levels for the day; close below 50 day EMA, 50% retracement, previous swing low, Monthly R1, and Weekly S2. We are roughly 24% away from our target so consider moving your stop lower to either the 100.60 or breakeven levels.