Monday, December 31, 2012

mar Coffee (update)

I was stopped out of my Long Coffee position today @ 141.75.  There are currently no new buy trades, but will keep watching this market for signs of a bottom.

Wednesday, December 26, 2012

mar Coffee (update)

It's been a couple weeks since we looked at Coffee.  The COT report still shows commercials near 8+ year bullish extremes.  I think we are seeing signs a bottom is in and is a good time to take a chance at getting long some futures.  The market formed a double bottom pattern today bouncing off an 8 point support trendline and in between MS1 and MS2.  You have bullish divergence on the RSI and a close above the 10 and 20 DMA.  The big key is you finally got a lower low followed by a higher high signalling a change in trend.  Will it be a big change in trend or a minor one? only time will tell, but it's worth taking a risk here.  Got long @ 148.05 (tick above the recent swing high) with stop @ 141.75 below recent low of 141.80.  The risk here is ~ 2362.50.  I will be looking for a big upside move with initial aggressive target near 185.00


mar Copper (update)

Copper was never able to get out of that resistance box and has been selling off since.  I mentioned some possible areas of support and the third one was the charm: around the 3.545 area.  However, this market is now in neutral territory: does it go and retest the recent highs or does it go retest the recent lows?  I will continue to watch for more clues, but on the sidelines now.  Something to keep an eye on though is this market is forming a symmetrical triangle on a weekly chart and looks poised to break out up or down in the next coming weeks.

mini Dow (update)

The December contract expired last Friday and we are now trading March.  Today will be the final post for this contract and we will revisit the March chart a few times to see if it goes to new highs or takes out the recent swing lows first.  Mid last week the market did indeed reach the 78.60 retracement level as expected. However, it met stiff resistance as it was also the MR1 and the 261 ABCD fib extension and has been selling off since.  This area basically closes the book on this pattern as it met it's objective.  It will be interesting to see what takes place from here: new highs or back to test the recent swing lows.

Tuesday, December 18, 2012

Mar Copper (update)

It's been around 5 days since my last post in Copper.  Over this time, Copper has struggled to move to the upper part of the resistance box.  The downward sloping trendlines seen on the 240M chart has proven to be solid resistance, which isn't surprising given they extend from a Feb '12 and Sept '12 swing high.  The high reached on Dec 12th briefly touched this resistance line in the same area as the MR1 pivot point and the 361/361 fib combo off the primary and supporting ABCD patterns.  Normally you would expect a pullback to around the 61.80% retracement based on this ABCD pattern off the 361/361 price level because of the deep and medium deep retracements.  This signaled a weak uptrend, which should give rise to a decent pullback.  This would call for prices to drop to around 3.53-3.55.  However, the move down off the Dec 12th high has also been weak so far as seen on the 240M chart.  The primary ABCD pattern has a med deep retracement with 6:10 left handed skewing.  The secondary ABCD pattern has a deep retracement with 5:5 neutral skewing.  Both retracements signal a weak down move that should see a good upside pop.  The levels to watch for first are the 261/261, 261/361, and 361/361 fib combos as possible support zones.  They are 3.585, 3.566, and 3.545.  Keep an eye on the downward sloping trendline on the daily chart that was resistance 3 times as it could turn into support if reached.  This could line up nicely with those fib levels.  Finally, there is a monthly pivot @ 3.57 that could come into play.

Tuesday, December 11, 2012

Mar Copper (update)

Copper hit just below the MR1 yesterday, which coincides with a downward sloping trendline and the 361/361 fib combo of the two main ABCD patterns coming off the 11/9 lows.  There's a very good chance we can see a correction from this area.  However, the bullish nature of the past couple weeks make it a tough market to short and you could see it grind lower before resuming higher.  I would consider scaling out of any long positions up at these prices though.

mini Dow (update)

I exited my last contract today @ 13288, which was the 100% projection of the ABCD pattern off the 11/16 low.  It was nice to see my target hit the day before the FOMC meeting, which could bring some volatile price action tomorrow.  I still see this market making an attempt at the 78.60 area and possibly the recent highs from early October.

Sunday, December 9, 2012

mini Dow (update)

This market was able to get through the ECB meeting and unemployment without any weakness.  We are continuing to see strength and I've now moved my stop up to 12904, just below the most recent swing low.  My target on my last contract remains 13288.  Friday's action saw it first new closing high since 11/23 and it looks like it really wants to test that 78.60 area.  However, I do see resistance if we get there this week.  Looking at the 240M chart the dominant ABCD pattern has a shallow retracement with 19:4 skewing, which is very bullish.  It was followed by a supporting ABCD pattern with a neutral retracement and 11:13 skewing, which is neutral.  These two patterns combined project an initial target area between 13288 and 13373.  The upper end of this area near 13373 coincides with the 78.60 retracement level along with MR1 resistance.  I would expect a correction from here, but if not the next target area would be the recent highs near 13600.

Mar Copper (update)

Copper has spent the past 4 days finding sellers in the lower end of my resistance box.  The 240M chart is still currently showing resistance between 3.67 and 3.76.  Let's see how price action plays out this week if it continues to trade in this zone.

Wednesday, December 5, 2012

Mar Copper (update)

Copper has entered the lower end of my resistance box and just missed the 370.00 level today so I decided to exit @ 367.50.  If I had more than a one lot I would hold one with a trailing stop, but since I only have one I thought it best to exit as I think we could start to face some resistance from current levels up to 375.00.


Copper has some upper resistance approaching based on patterns from the 240M chart.  This recent move up started with the dominant ABCD having a deep retracement and it's secondary ABCD having a medium deep retracement.  This signals a weak uptrend that could have a decent pullback when it hits some fib resistance.  The third supporting ABCD also had a deep retracement.  The 361 fib combo up @ 371.25 is shaping up to be a possible short term trading opportunity on the short side.  This area is supported by a monthly R1 and a downward sloping trendline from a monthly chart.  The one tough part of shorting is the past few days has been very bullish and isn't offering any small local ABCD patterns to cluster in the target zone.  As a result, you may see some sideways action up there so it can shake off its bullish energy.  If it breaks through 372.00, then it could face resistance up at the 78.60 zone @ 375.00.  I think it will be very tough for Copper to move any higher without a correction first.

mini Dow (update)

I decided to exit another contract @ 13015 near the close today.  I've moved my stop on my remaining one lot to 12739 with my target exit @ 13288.  There's alot on tap for tomorrow and Friday (ECB, BOE meetings, unemployment data) so I figured I'd lighten up.  But as far a price action goes we are now above the 10, 20, 50, and 100 DMA and are coming out of that bullish ABCD pattern.  I like prices to test the 78.60 retracement zone up @ 13350, which coincides with monthly R1 resistance.

Sunday, December 2, 2012

mini Dow (update)

Thursday price action confirmed a bullish ABCD pattern with shallow retracement and 3:1 right handed skewing.  We also broke the 3pt resistance trendline and closed above the 50 and 100 DMA.  I exited half my position on Friday @ 12986 and moved a stop on my remaining 2 contracts just below the swing low @ 12739.  This bullish ABCD pattern now suggests a conservative upside target of 13288 with more agressive targets of 13373-13615.  I will look to exit 1 @ 13220 and the remainder @ 13349.

Mar Copper (update)

On Thursday, Copper broke the 7 point resistance line and closed above the 50 and 100 DMA.  It stalled right around the 364 mark on Friday, which coincides with a downward sloping trendline.  I mentioned this could be an area of resistance.  I think we could get further upside in this market and I will be looking to exit around the 370 area.  There are pockets of resistance if we clear 364 between 367 and 375.  If we enter this area I will give some analysis for a possible short trade.