mar Copper (update)

Prices broke out to the upside today stopping just shy of the Jan 2nd high.  I think this market breaks this level too and goes for the Sept 19th swing high next.  If we can keep these current gains by week's end, then you will have a confirmed break of both downward sloping resistance lines.  That should help drive prices higher in the upcoming weeks ahead.

mar Copper

March Copper has been consolidating since mid October.  It has seen higher lows and lower highs on the weekly chart with some significant support and resistance trendlines with 5 to 8 touches.  Currently, we are above the 10, 20, 50, and 100 WMA heading into mid week.  It will be interesting to see if Copper finally breaks through the downward sloping resistance lines or through the upward sloping support lines.  I'd say there are more clues pointing to possible upside breakout as it's in a seasonally strong period, housing data has been strong, and the daily chart has been showing higher highs and higher lows.  We have the Fed tomorrow and unemployment on Friday.  This could be an interesting finish to the week in Copper.

mar Coffee (update)

March Coffee fell just 0.75 cents short of reaching the resistance zone 1 area on Jan 18th.  Since then it has sold off pretty hard closing below the 10, 20, 50 DMA once again.  This market looks poised to test recent lows once again.  However, there is one last line of potential support before it does that- the 78.60 fib retracement ~ 144.80.

mar Coffee (update)

Coffee is closing in on it's symmetrical triangle pattern target near 159.40.  However, you could see some resistance near it between 158.75 to 161.20.  Besides the triangle pattern objective, you have the 100 DMA, the MR2 pivot, previous pivot lows that were once support, and some fib resistance as well.  If it breaks through this resistance zone 1, then you have stronger resistance between 163.00 and 167.00.

Also, I just wanted to show an updated chart I showed on November 27th.  It was my first mention of this Coffee market.  Prices on the monthly continuation chart came very close to the upward sloping trendline thats been in place since December 2001 before bouncing higher.  You can see bullish divergence on the RSI and a loss of downside momentum on the MACD.  On the weekly chart, you can see we moved a little lower from that November posting as this market grinded sideways a bit to shake off the remaining bearishness.  Finally, you can see the market tug of war battle between the bulls and bears in the candle formed at it's lows.  You can see long shadows on the top and bottom with a small body, which represents some indecision.  This market still has upside challenges to face and there's no guarantee we won't see further weakness.  However, we are finally seeing some bullish characteristics enter this market as we approach a seasonally strong period starting in February and I strongly believe a temporary bottom was put in place.

mar Coffee (update)

Price action today confirmed a symmetrical triangle pattern and was able to close above the 50 DMA for the first time since early October.  It also closed above the 10 WMA for the first time since late September.  We are finally starting to see confirmation of buyers entering this market.  The symmetrical triangle pattern's objective is ~ 159.40 with stops @ 144.85.  I didn't enter this trade, but still holding on to my option positions as I'm looking for a possible upside move to the 180-185 area.  Lastly, from a seasonal perspective we can see price strength from October through May with dips in November, January, and March.  We haven't seen any strength in this market for some time, but it certainly is a good sign of a potential bottom forming during a seasonally strong period.

mar Coffee (update)

mar Coffee (update)

Coffee is forming a potential symmetrical triangle pattern that looks poised to break out tomorrow.  Today we closed above the 10 and 20 DMA for the second consecutive day.  The next key level to close above is the 50 DMA near 152.00.  It hasn't closed above this MA since 10/4/12.  The target on this pattern is around 159.50.  If those options positions I'm holding are going to make any money, then this market needs to start moving higher soon.  Let's see if this potential triangle pattern can finally kickstart a rally.  COT report still showing a bullish contrarian view.  Chart to follow.

mar Coffee (update)

After I was stopped out on my futures trades on 12/31, this market put in another double bottom yesterday after the first one failed.  I don't have any futures positions on, but still holding those option positions from mid November:

11/14 bought 1 KC Mar 160 C @ 5.40
11/26 bought 2 KC Mar 150-162.50 C spread @ 3,112.50 debit

I will continue to update this market as I still anticipate a nice sized rally coming this quarter.  Let's see if it happens in time to profit on those options trades.