Wednesday, May 31, 2017

Possible Reversal Patterns in Swiss Franc, Euro, and Dollar Index

There are a few potential reversal set-ups taking shape in the Swiss Franc, Euro, and Dollar Index.  I will give my initial analysis on the June contract, but ultimately would probably play out on the September contract.  First, the Swiss Franc shows a possible topping zone between 1.0540 and 1.0818 with a potential sweet spot in the 1.0727 to 1.0818 area.  The dominant and supporting1 measured moves both have deep retracements, which signals a weak uptrend.  If a reversal happens in my resistance zone, then I would expect at least a 50 pct retracement.  The most recent leg up, off the 5/11 low, will have a supershallow breakout with a move above 1.0335.  That is very bullish and could be the trigger to drive prices up into my resistance zone.  However, any bearish trades will need more supporting data.  On the flip side, you could also play into the possible upside breakout.  Entry would be above 1.0335 with stops below 1.0208.  Upside target would be at the low of my resistance zone ~ 1.0540.

Second, the Euro shows a possible topping zone between 1.14336 and 1.18704.  The dominant and supporting1 measured moves both have deep retracements, which signals a weak uptrend.  If a reversal happens in my resistance zone, then I would expect at least a 50 pct retracement.  The most recent leg up, off the 4/10 low, shows a shallow MM along with another possible shallow MM.  This is very bullish and could drive prices up into the upper end of my resistance zone.  Any bearish trades will need more supporting data.


Finally, the Dollar Index shows a possible bottoming zone between 94.471 and 93.082.  The dominant and supporting1 measured moves both have medium deep retracements or worse, which signals a weak downtrend.  If a reversal happens in my support zone, then I would expect at least a 50 pct retracement.  The most recent leg down, off the 4/10 high, shows a neutral MM along with another possible supershallow MM.  This is bullish and could drive prices down into the lower end of my resistance zone.  Any bullish trades will need more supporting data.


Tuesday, May 9, 2017

Heating Oil (final update)

Heating Oil created 3 different bullish patterns in late March.  A double bottom, a MM fade, and a MM pullback.  The targets of the double bottom and the MM fade pattern were both reached.  However, the MM pullback trade failed to reach its target and is no longer active.

April 8 post:
This past week saw heating oil reach its MM Fade pattern minimum objective and its double bottom objectives.  Next up is the MM Pullback minimum target of 1.7122.  Prices are currently above all 4 moving averages, but found resistance at a 461 Fib extension from a small MM pattern.  There's also upside resistance from a volume @ price range between 1.6415 and 1.6720.  In this range, there's a monthly R1 pivot that could cause a pullback.  Over all, this pattern is still looking very good with lower support between 1.6000 and 1.5685.

Gold (final update)

Gold traded into the 1293.30 to 1313.20 range on April 17th, meeting the minimum target, and has since traded back below the 1241.40 low.  This pattern is no longer active.

April 11 post:
Gold triggered a MM Pullback buy entry today with a strong breakout.  It closed above a 4 point downward sloping trend line and was the highest close since November.  Its high was just shy of the monthly R1 pivot and looks to be headed toward my target range of 1293.30 to 1313.20.  Entry price was @ 1259.00 with conservative stop @ 1241.40 and aggressive stop @ 1248.10.

Gold (final update)

This pattern was never triggered and is no longer valid.

April 30 post:
A possible bullish Fib Cluster Pullback trade is developing in Gold.  The Fib cluster zone is currently between 1264.20 and 1253.20.  It contains a combination of 3 Fib retracements or extensions from a dominant MM with neutral retracement and a supporting1 MM with supershallow retracement shown on a daily chart.  Further supporting this zone is a previous 4 point downward sloping resistance line that is now serving as support, a 6 point upward sloping trend line, and a previous swing high trend line.  Prices are still also above both the 50 and 100 DMA's.   A move above 1272.80  triggers a long entry with stops below 1253.20.  Target1 @ 1294.40, target2 @  1300.90, and target3 @ 1307.70. 

Copper (final update)

The head and shoulders top pattern finally reached its objective of 247.30 yesterday after 44 days.  It definitely would have been a tough hold as it took heat on 4 different pullbacks.  However, the market did ultimately trend down making lower highs and lower lows.