Sunday, November 18, 2012

Mini Dow

A similar pattern has been emerging in the mini DJIA as the mini S&P, but with a long signal activated tonight.  Therefore, I will move my analysis over to this market.  Similar setup with a weak downtrending market into a support zone.  You have the dominant structure a double top, followed by a secondary structure with a deep retracement, followed by two more supporting structures with medium deep and supershallow retracements.  The time frames have been getting smaller as well indicating a possible loss of downside momentum.  This move touched the 361/361 fib combination of the dominant and secondary structures, which is a possible buy zone if confirmed with other indicators.  In this zone we also had a monthly S2, and oversold RSI, and some old support levels.  Finally, we had a bullish engulfing candle pattern for on Friday.  I went long a tick above the high of this candle @ 12574.  This triggered two different buy setups.  First, I'm long 2 on the bullish engulfing pattern with stops @ 12433 (low of candle).  Second, I'm long 2 more on a superstructure trade.  Stop 1 is @ 12300 and stop 2 @ 12200.  I'm looking for a bounce to at least 13025.  Obstacles to this trade are it could move lower and test better support around the 78.60 retracement level @ 12274, which is another support zone at the 461/361 fib combo.  MACD stills shows bearish momentum.  We need to see a bullish crossover to feel better about the long position.  However, this is a lagging indicator and usually comes a few days after the bottom.  Finally, we have a potential strong resistance cluster ~ 12750, which includes the monthly S1.

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