Tuesday, November 20, 2012

Mar Copper (Update)

OI has moved to the March contract, so we pick up the same pattern as the Dec contract.  New lows were never put in and a wider time range will form if those lows are breached.  Therefore, there are no more buy zone set-ups at lower levels.  However, this market is bouncing off an early support zone.  It wasn't an area I was comfortable buying into so I wanted to either wait for a candlestick pattern to form, see lower prices form by Nov 14th, or play a bounce above the Nov 13th high.  I ended up getting long on Nov 19th a tick above the Nov 13th high ~ 3.5090 with a stop below the recent lows ~ 3.4140.  Our initial target is the 78.60 retracement area ~ 3.755.  This buy set-up follows the logic that Copper traded into the first buy zone, but it wasn't supported by other indicators yet.  My ideal choice was to buy at lower prices, but after a few days of trading sideways and not making new lows caused some other supporting indicators to form.  These other indicators are: bullish crossover on the MACD, a bullish engulfing pattern, and a close above the 10 and 20 DMA.  Our first obstacle will be the 6pt downward sloping trendline that lines up with the 50 and 100 DMA.  I expect selling at this level.

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