Wednesday, May 5, 2010

SUGAR

I got Long 2 July Sugar futures @ 14.05 today.  There was a buy set-up seen on a 240M chart.  The dominant move was a double top and it's first supporting structure had a deep retracement and severe left handed skewing (both weak).  The second supporting structure had a supershallow retracement, which gave this down move some extra steam.  The first solid area for a potential buy was in the 13.70-14.15 zone.  To further narrow this area you can look at a smaller time frame.  If you look at a 15M chart you will see this buy zone will shrink to 13.80-14.00.  I got in a little aggressive @ 14.05 and the low of the day was 13.86.   You can see a double bottom formed on the 15M chart.  A lower low was made with RSI divergence.  You then got a confirming signal with a MACD crossover.  If you look at the daily chart, then you will see a hammer candle formed.  Price action fell through DS2, WS2, and MS1 before closing above all three.  This gives further support for this hammer formation.  This is a good example of what creates a candle pattern.  Here we got a solid cluster of fib support near 3 pivot points causing price to reject off the lows and close in the upper range.  We need to see some follow through buying tomorrow to support this bottom.  Stops moved up to one tick below todays low.

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