Monday, May 3, 2010

COCOA (DAILY)

There's a potential sell set-up on the July Cocoa daily chart.  The dominant and first level supporting measured moves both have very deep retracements, which signals a weak start to a trend.  The 2nd level supporting structure is super shallow, which signals an increase in momentum.  There are 3 potential sell zones shaping up:
Zone 1:  @ the 261/261 fib combo of the dominant and first level supporting structures sandwiched between another 261/261 fib combo seen on an intraday chart.
Zone 2:  @ the weekly 78.60 retracement level, which is supported by the first level supporting structures 261 fib extension, the second level supporting structures 261, and sandwiched between two 361 fib extensions seen on an intraday chart.
Zone 3:  @ 361/261 fib combo of the dominant and first level supporting structures sandwiched between a 461/461 fib combo from an intraday chart.

The strong bullish move the past couple weeks lends more weight to shorting around zone 2 or 3 and not zone 1.  RSI is approaching overbought territory and the MACD is showing a loss of momentum.  When this market sells off, it sells off hard.  So this could be a very good short if you can catch it pretty clean.


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