Continuous Commodity Index

Let's take another look at this market.  We've seen some increased selling this week after a pause last week.  It's looking more likely to test that 78.60% area @ 522.903.  I still believe we will go even lower and possibly test the recent lows near 502.28. 

British Pound

The British Pound met some resistance around the 38% retracement area and has sold off the past few days.  Today's price action was bearish with a close back below all the moving averages (10, 20, 50 ,100).  There is potential for support and a bounce around the 1.5150-1.5190 zone.  This area has a confluence of fib support and two intersecting support trendlines.  Let's watch price action in this area.  If it blows through, then you can expect a test of the recent lows. 

Continuous Commodity Index

It looks to me like the commodity markets have more downside action ahead according to the CCI weekly chart.  Since it's Sept 2012 high, this market has been making lower highs and lower lows.  This 6 month downtrend has seen 3 ABCD patterns:
* Pattern 1 has a shallow retracement with 4:4 neutral skewing: BEARISH
* Pattern 2 has a deep retracement with 4:3 right handed skewing: BULLISH
* Pattern 3 has a neutral retracement with a 1:3 left handed skewing: NEUTRAL
The dominant pattern is #1 and sets the tone, which is Bearish.  I'm expecting this move to test the 78% retracement zone @ 522.903 and possibly a bit lower.  I think this downtrend finds support somewhere between 502.50 and 523 as the downtrend has been weakening.  If we get closer to this area I will give more analysis on possible areas for a bounce, which would affect numerous commodity markets. 
Stay tuned!

British Pound

It's been about a week since my last post on this market so let me give another update:
First, we saw prices break down and close below the 10 and 20 DMA on Tuesday with a bearish candle.  It looked as though the H&S pattern was in trouble and prices were going to try and test recent lows.  However, on Thursday following the BOE meeting we saw prices bounce off their lows, rally, and close near their highs creating a very bullish candle.  This brought us back above the 10 and 20 DMA along with creating a potential ABCD pattern.
Second, Friday's price action indeed confirmed an ABCD pattern with neutral retracement and a very bullish 7:1 right hand skew on the breakout.  The skewing confirms bullish momentum as it took 7 bars from it's swing high to swing low and only one bar to break out and create the ABCD pattern.  This changes some of the upside price targets.
Third, we got a close above the 50 DMA for the first time since January 10th and closed right on the 10 WMA.
Finally, some upside price targets:
Conservative:  the 100% projection of the ABCD pattern ~ 1.5464
Moderate:   the H&S objective ~ 1.5545 alongside the 100 DMA ~ 1.5531 and 20 WMA ~ 1.5521
Aggressive:  the 261% extension of the ABCD pattern ~ 1.5637

British Pound

It's been a few days since my last post so let's take another look at the British Pound June futures.  We saw 3 days of selling followed by a bounce back up today.  The current short term uptrend is still in place and today's close got us back above the 10 and 20 DMA.  If we take out the recent 3-25 swing high of 1.5260, then we will have back to back ABCD patterns with higher highs and higher lows.  The next target area will be 1.5400.

British Pound

The head & shoulders bottom pattern got confirmation today with a close above the neckline.  We also got a close above the 20 DMA yesterday for the first time since January 10th.  Let's see if we can get follow through next week or if the bearish momentum returns.  One other piece of supporting data that I forgot to mention on Wednesday for some upside action comes from the COT data.  Commercials are approaching extreme longs, which is bullish.  Small traders are at 8+ year shorts, which is bullish.  Another thing worth mentioning is that large traders are a record net long the Dollar Index, which is bearish.  The Dollar Index has been on a nice rally the past month and a half.  We could see some dollar weakness the next week or two, which could be good for some of the other currencies like the Pound.

British Pound

The British Pound could see a correction bounce in the days and week ahead.  This market has gotten crushed since the start of 2013.  There is fundamental factors at play here, but the technicals are lining up for a possible bounce. 
First, a potential head and shouders bottom is forming with a close above the neckline needed to confirm this pattern.  A close above 1.5181 should do it. 
Second, the market is in oversold territory and shows bullish divergence on the RSI.  You also have a bullish crossover on the MACD.
Third, an engulfing candlestick pattern formed on the weekly chart, a hammer on the daily chart, and an engulfing on the daily chart.  All formed at the monthly S1 pivot.
Fourth, you had a bullish ABCD pattern form today with shallow retracement and right handed skewing. 
Fifth, you saw a close above the 10 DMA 5 days back and it's held since.  Next up is to close above the 20 DMA, which has been resistance the past few days.  It hasn't been above since early January.

Targets: the H&S objective is around 1.5550, which coincides with the 361 fib extension off the ABCD pattern and the 100 DMA.  First resistance should be around 1.5390, which is the 261 fib extension of the ABCD pattern and the 50 DMA.