Wednesday, March 20, 2013

British Pound

The British Pound could see a correction bounce in the days and week ahead.  This market has gotten crushed since the start of 2013.  There is fundamental factors at play here, but the technicals are lining up for a possible bounce. 
First, a potential head and shouders bottom is forming with a close above the neckline needed to confirm this pattern.  A close above 1.5181 should do it. 
Second, the market is in oversold territory and shows bullish divergence on the RSI.  You also have a bullish crossover on the MACD.
Third, an engulfing candlestick pattern formed on the weekly chart, a hammer on the daily chart, and an engulfing on the daily chart.  All formed at the monthly S1 pivot.
Fourth, you had a bullish ABCD pattern form today with shallow retracement and right handed skewing. 
Fifth, you saw a close above the 10 DMA 5 days back and it's held since.  Next up is to close above the 20 DMA, which has been resistance the past few days.  It hasn't been above since early January.

Targets: the H&S objective is around 1.5550, which coincides with the 361 fib extension off the ABCD pattern and the 100 DMA.  First resistance should be around 1.5390, which is the 261 fib extension of the ABCD pattern and the 50 DMA.

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