Wednesday, February 8, 2017

Cocoa (update)

It's been almost a week since my first post on Cocoa and we've seen strong selling down into my support zone the past few days.  Here's a quick reminder of where I see possible buyers coming in to form a bottom:
2011  S1 Pivot
1983  Dec 2011 swing low
1982  461/361 Fib combo
1932  S2 Pivot
1910  Sep 2014-Oct 2016 range bound target
1848  461/461 Fib combo

We've also got some downside targets forming based off the move down from late January.  In addition, let's focus on the most recent move down from Jan 31st.  We have 2 measured moves that have formed.  The dominant measured move has a very deep retracement with 5:3 right handed skewing.  The supporting measured move has a shallow retracement with 5:1 right handed skewing.  It's this last move down that can help pinpoint a possible turn.  Here are the Fib combo's where a short term bounce may occur:
261/261  1989
361/361  1939
461/461  1889

These levels all occur right in the middle of my support zone of 1848-2011.  It's this small pattern that may trigger the longer term bounce I'm predicting.  We need to watch this unfold further to see if any more supporting signals are given.  I've included a 240 minute chart below that shows the most recent price action.  The blue box is my projected support zone.


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