Sugar

Sugar is a market to pay attention to this month as it normally makes a seasonal low ~ June.  However, it can come a bit early (May) or a little later (July).  If you take a look at the weekly chart (left hand side below), you can see this market has been in a downtrend since the October 2011 top.  This move is controlled by its dominating ABCD pattern, which has a deep retracement and 14:8 right handed skewing.  The secondary ABCD pattern has a medium deep retracement and 5:5 neutral skewing.  These two combined are considered a weak downtrend that can see a favorable bounce once the market reaches a solid support zone.  A few possible areas are the 261/261 and 361/261 fib combinations based off these two ABCD patterns.  The market has touched and traded slightly below the 261/261 zone.  This is the first area for a possible bounce that we will analyze today.

Bullish signals:
Weekly RSI divergence
Daily RSI divergence
Potential Double bottom forming (need close above 17.74 swing high)
Support from MS1 pivot
COT: commercials @ 8+ year longs
COT: large traders @ 8+ year shorts

Upside roadblocks:
8 point downward trendline resistance on monthly continuation chart (becomes bullish if closes above)
Current pattern of lower lows and lower highs (becomes bullish with double bottom formation)
MR1 pivot @ 18.01
50 DMA @ 17.96
10 WMA @ 17.93
Overall weakness in the commodity sector

If we get a double bottom confirmation, then it's target will be around 18.28.  This area coincides with a potentially strong resistance zone, which is shown on the daily chart below (righ hand side).  The MR2 pivot is also in this area along with a confluence of Fib resistance, the 100 DMA, and the 50 WMA.