Saturday, January 19, 2013

mar Coffee (update)

Coffee is closing in on it's symmetrical triangle pattern target near 159.40.  However, you could see some resistance near it between 158.75 to 161.20.  Besides the triangle pattern objective, you have the 100 DMA, the MR2 pivot, previous pivot lows that were once support, and some fib resistance as well.  If it breaks through this resistance zone 1, then you have stronger resistance between 163.00 and 167.00.


Also, I just wanted to show an updated chart I showed on November 27th.  It was my first mention of this Coffee market.  Prices on the monthly continuation chart came very close to the upward sloping trendline thats been in place since December 2001 before bouncing higher.  You can see bullish divergence on the RSI and a loss of downside momentum on the MACD.  On the weekly chart, you can see we moved a little lower from that November posting as this market grinded sideways a bit to shake off the remaining bearishness.  Finally, you can see the market tug of war battle between the bulls and bears in the candle formed at it's lows.  You can see long shadows on the top and bottom with a small body, which represents some indecision.  This market still has upside challenges to face and there's no guarantee we won't see further weakness.  However, we are finally seeing some bullish characteristics enter this market as we approach a seasonally strong period starting in February and I strongly believe a temporary bottom was put in place.


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