Mar Copper (update)

It's been around 5 days since my last post in Copper.  Over this time, Copper has struggled to move to the upper part of the resistance box.  The downward sloping trendlines seen on the 240M chart has proven to be solid resistance, which isn't surprising given they extend from a Feb '12 and Sept '12 swing high.  The high reached on Dec 12th briefly touched this resistance line in the same area as the MR1 pivot point and the 361/361 fib combo off the primary and supporting ABCD patterns.  Normally you would expect a pullback to around the 61.80% retracement based on this ABCD pattern off the 361/361 price level because of the deep and medium deep retracements.  This signaled a weak uptrend, which should give rise to a decent pullback.  This would call for prices to drop to around 3.53-3.55.  However, the move down off the Dec 12th high has also been weak so far as seen on the 240M chart.  The primary ABCD pattern has a med deep retracement with 6:10 left handed skewing.  The secondary ABCD pattern has a deep retracement with 5:5 neutral skewing.  Both retracements signal a weak down move that should see a good upside pop.  The levels to watch for first are the 261/261, 261/361, and 361/361 fib combos as possible support zones.  They are 3.585, 3.566, and 3.545.  Keep an eye on the downward sloping trendline on the daily chart that was resistance 3 times as it could turn into support if reached.  This could line up nicely with those fib levels.  Finally, there is a monthly pivot @ 3.57 that could come into play.