Dec Swiss Franc

There's a potential low risk, high reward trade setup in the SFZ12 contract. This market broke out and created a measured move on 10/17 with a supershallow retracement and neutral skewing.  However, the move off the swing low on 10/1 to 10/17 had a very deep retracement which weakened the breakout.  As a result we would expect to see a pullback, which could present a buying opportunity.  The setup is to buy around the 38/78% retracement area, which was touched on Friday.  This level touched an upward sloping trendline that has held 5 times, is just above the 50 and 100 DMA, and above the monthly pivot.  The MACD is still above the zero line and the RSI is in neutral territory.  Finally, a doji formed giving us more confirmation of a possible bounce.  The trigger to enter will be buying 2 above the high of the doji @ 1.0722.  The first stop loss will be below the low of the doji @ 1.065 and the second stop loss will be below the swing low @ 1.0608.  We will look to exit one ~ 1.09 and the second ~ 1.10.  We will be risking 2325 to make 5700 for a reward/risk ratio of 2.45.  Potential obstacles are seasonally it's a weak period until late November, it has to close back above it's 10 and 20 DMA, and this market could in the process of forming a double top if you get a close below the neckline of 1.0608.  At that point we would be stopped out of our long trade.  Let's see how this plays out next week.