Tuesday, May 3, 2011

Continuous Commodity Index

Commodities have been on an absolute tear since Dec 2008 with a return of around 89% on the CCI over that span.  However, this market may finally see a correction.  The market just recently tested the March 7th high and has sold off since.  It took 7 days from the March swing high down to the March swing low and took 25 more days to get back and make a new swing high.  This negative skew is a bearish sign and shows stronger downside momentum.  Over the past couple weeks we formed a H&S Top formation on the daily chart at a previous resistance point.  We got confirmation today with close below the neckline.  The downside objective is ~ 658.07 with stops @ 687.74.  The weekly chart also shows some bearish signs with a negative divergence on the RSI.  If this pattern holds to form, then you should see a big correction in most off the commodity markets including the metals. 


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