Saturday, May 9, 2009

Feed Cattle

We saw a big rally in feeder today and we were stopped out at breakeven on our position. The short term outlook now looks bullish stessing the importance of trade management. By trailing our stop we were able to prevent a losing trade. Also, some people may have gotten out for a small winner once the market signaled a short term reversal on 5/4. The market formed a harami candlestick and a key bar reversal on bar charts. I chose to ride out the position to breakeven. That concludes coverage on this position. More to come soon.

Thursday, May 7, 2009

Feed Cattle

The market attempted a rally yesterday, but found resistance at the downward sloping trendline, the 50% retracement, the 10 day EMA, and the 20 day EMA. It did close back above the 50 day EMA. We are currently closer to our breakeven stop than our target, so position losing some steam.

Wednesday, May 6, 2009

Cotton

Cotton never get under the trigger of 56.55 so no position was taken. Also, the highs were taken out so the spinning top is now negated. However, the market saw rejection at @ 461.80% extreme fib extension. We also saw the market close below the 50% mark for the day and is extremely overbought with an RSI of 78.96. I expect a much needed correction is coming and I'm looking to short below yesterday's low of 56.97.

Feed Cattle

We saw some real quiet action yesterday and a very narrow trading range. The market may test the 50 day EMA today.

Monday, May 4, 2009

Cotton

I have a potential trade set-up from my Ninja fund in July Cotton. This market has made a tremendous move up the past 8 weeks and is in overbought territory. Today also saw a spinning top candle formation, which is indicating a potential loss of momentum. Additionally, the current level is at two 361.80% extreme fibonacci projection levels. I'm looking to get short under today's lows ~ 56.55. If this level is triggered, my stop loss will be @ 57.45 with a potential target area ~ 51.75.

Feed Cattle

We got within 0.225 of the target today, then the market bounced higher. When the market is within 25% of my target area I move my stop to breakeven. So we have a riskless trade right now. The market is still short term bearish, but the stronger close is a concern.

Saturday, May 2, 2009

Feed Cattle

We saw some good follow through selling today getting the break below 98.875. There's not much bullish news to the current position other than support @ the 61.80 retracement level. Otherwise, we really got everything on our side right now: close @ low levels for the day; close below 50 day EMA, 50% retracement, previous swing low, Monthly R1, and Weekly S2. We are roughly 24% away from our target so consider moving your stop lower to either the 100.60 or breakeven levels.