Thursday, May 28, 2015

Cocoa (update)

Yesterday I mentioned to be on the lookout for more clues that could signal a top.  We got two more based on yesterday's close.  First, we got a bearish crossover on the MACD.  This is the first bearish crossover since 3/6/15, which was the the start of the last sell off.  Second, we formed a bearish engulfing candle.  This pattern is even more significant because of it's location.  It formed in a fib cluster of resistance, near the 78.60 retracement zone, and near MR2.  I'd like to see some downside follow through today and will add to my short position below 3112 with tight stop @ 3182.  If the recent high of 3181 is taken out, then the engulfing pattern is void.  Also, we are still above the 10, 20, 50, and 100 DMA.  So these are all downside obstacles that will serve as support.  First up is the 10 DMA ~ 3114.  Then we have the 20 DMA ~ 3058 along with MR1, which now becomes potential support, @ 3044.  Following that will be the 3/3/15 high @ 3023.  Let's watch and see if this market now attempts to go lower and test these support levels OR if we make new highs and test the next cluster of resistance.  Either way I believe we are in for a correction in Cocoa.

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